By Marc Normandin
– Contributor
The Indians’ rotation is surprisingly talented, even if they are just as likely to implode as shine.
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Mar 13, 2012 – Last year’s Cleveland Indians were mediocre. There was nothing outright wrong with them, as they finished 80-82, but they didn’t excel anywhere, either. They finished second in a weak American League Central, 15 games back of a Detroit Tigers team that didn’t stand pat this winter. While it’s not a given the Indians will compete for a playoff spot this year either, the rotation they cobbled together this off-season gives them the chance to be more interesting than they’ve managed the last four years.
The first impression one gets looking at Cleveland’s rotation isn’t that positive given there’s no clear stud, but its intrigue unveils itself the longer you look, and without having to squint. Justin Masterson is listed as the team’s #1 starter according to MLB Depth Charts, but that’s a title of little consequence in this rotation. What matters about Masterson isn’t where he’s “ranked”, but how he pitches: his four years in the bigs tell us he’s capable of success.
Last year was the most obvious example of this, as Masterson threw a career-high 216 innings while posting bests in walk rate (2.7), ERA (3.21), and K/BB (2.4). He did it almost entirely on the strength of fastballs, too, as he utilized a four-seamer and sinker 85 percent of the time. Masterson’s sink-heavy approach induced grounders on 68 percent of sinkers put in play, good for a 1.7 z-score on the pitch according to Brooks Baseball. (Z-score measures standard deviations above the mean, so Masterson’s sinker induced grounders at a rate 1.7 standard deviations better than your typical sinker.)
He’s no ace, but he is more than capable of above-average starting, especially if he can continue his progress against lefties. He’d had a problem with lefties in the past, but Masterson was league average against left-handed hitters in 2011, and he’ll need to keep that up if he wants to be more than just a bit above average.
Masterson isn’t the only groundballer on the staff. Ubaldo Jimenez, acquired from the Rockies before last July’s trade deadline, gets his fair share of grounders but also misses bats. He was disappointing in his stint with the Indians, but it’s hard to see why: his strikeout and walk rates were all in line with career norms, and while he gave up more homers, it was still a better-than-average rate.
The most likely culprit was his August BABIP of .366. If anything, Jimenez’s BABIP should have dropped after leaving the thin, offense-powering air of Colorado, but instead he gave up a .297/.350/.538 line. Things were much more normal in September, with Jimenez holding hitters to .216/.316/.336 with a .264 BABIP. While that might seem low, his career BABIP despite Coors’ BABIP-inflating presence is .290, so you would expect him to be a bit better than average in that regard, even if not .264 good.
Jimenez might never be as productive as his 2010 season, but he doesn’t have to be. Over 916 career innings, he owns a 123 ERA+. Cleveland would love to get the arm that posted a sub-three ERA in spite of Coors in 2010, but he can be plenty productive without matching that career-best campaign.
Derek Lowe is a less appealing arm than Masterson or Jimenez, but he can play the groundball game, too. The Braves haven’t done a great job of defending for Lowe the last three years, as his BABIPs of .327, .307 and .327 show. He’s been between 56 and 59 percent grounders over that stretch, and that many balls on the ground is too many for the gloves of Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla, and Brooks Conrad. It’s not entirely their fault — Lowe, in his late 30s, is likely more hittable than he used to be — but that group didn’t help things either.
Asdrubal Cabrera is a questionable defensive shortstop regardless of your metric of choice, but other than that, the Indians infield looks strong defensively. Casey Kotchman might not hit enough to satisfy the Indians, but he can still field at first. Third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall is a former shortstop who is expected to field well at third thanks to good hands and a strong arm. Jason Kipnis was moved to second base from the outfield before the 2010 season, and while his range is just average, he’s an improvement over what Lowe is used to.
Lowe won’t be the high-quality starter he used to be with the Red Sox and Dodgers, but with a little help from his infield, he’s got a chance to be league average for upwards of 200 innings.
Not all of the Indians’ pitchers are groundballers. Well, not now anyway, since Fausto Carmona reverted to being Roberto Hernandez. Josh Tomlin and Kevin Slowey round out the staff, and they are extreme flyball pitchers. Tomlin’s 2011 ERA was 4.25 — right in line with his 4.27 FIP — despite his flyball tendencies. He can thank his exceptional control for that: Tomlin posted a 1.1 walk rate and 4.2 K/BB, numbers that seem crazy until you see almost his entire professional career has featured ridiculous control. In 238 MLB innings, Tomlin owns a 1.5 BB/9, and finished his minor league career at 1.9.
Slowey is the same way, with 1.4 walks per nine over 532 major-league frames. His problem is that his walk and home run rates are mirror images, and that his pro-strike zone lifestyle has resulted in a career 10.2 hits per nine innings pitched and a .312 BABIP despite life spent in neutral parks. Despite walking barely anyone, ever, Slowey has still allowed nearly an .800 OPS for his career.
Slowey’s the real question mark at the back of the rotation, but if the outfield of Aaron Cunningham, Michael Brantley, and Shin-Soo Choo (let’s not even bother teasing an extensive amount of Grady Sizemore time out there) can get to more balls in play than a Twins team that has ranked in the bottom third in Defensive Efficiency for four years running, he’ll at least be better than in the past.
There are real questions about just how good all five of these pitchers can be in 2012. But there are also real reasons to believe that this is, despite first impressions, a high-quality staff thanks to the ability to induce grounders or avoid walks. They might not be enough to get the Indians competing right away, but it’s a start.
Read More: Grady Sizemore (CF – CLE), Shin-Soo Choo (RF – CLE), Fausto Carmona (P – CLE), Ubaldo Jimenez (P – CLE), Kevin Slowey (P – CLE), Derek Lowe (P – CLE), Asdrubal Cabrera (SS – CLE), Aaron Cunningham (RF – CLE), Justin Masterson (P – CLE), Michael Brantley (LF – CLE), Lonnie Chisenhall (3B – CLE), Josh Tomlin (P – CLE), Jason Kipnis (2B – CLE), Cleveland Indians
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